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Chicken Inn vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chicken Inn
Chicken Inn
FT
1 – 2
Harare City
Harare City
6/8/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chicken Inn46%
×Draw31%
Harare City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicken Inn
1.15
Harare City
0.72

Chicken Inn creates 60% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chicken Inn
1.11
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Chicken Inn
0.65
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Chicken Inn+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicken Inn ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chicken Inn or draw
77%
Chicken Inn or Harare City
69%
Draw or Harare City
54%

Winning margin

Chicken Inn wins by 2+
20%
Harare City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chicken Inn 1+ goals
68%
Chicken Inn 2+ goals
32%
Chicken Inn 3+ goals
11%
Harare City 1+ goals
51%
Harare City 2+ goals
16%
Harare City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chicken Inn (draw refunded)
67%
Harare City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicken Inn at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.65 · 96 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicken Inn attack 1.11 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Harare City attack 0.79 + Chicken Inn defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chicken Inn scores more
46%
level
31%
Harare City scores more
23%

Chicken Inn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chicken Inn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Chicken Inn 1–2 Harare City

Harare City beat Chicken Inn 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.