Chichester & Selsey W 0–6 Ipswich Town W

Chichester & Selsey W

0 – 6

Ipswich Town W

12/1/2019

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundBunn Leisure Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chichester & Selsey W9%

×Draw11%

Ipswich Town W79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chichester & Selsey WExpected goals in this matchIpswich Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

3.67

Chichester & Selsey W

1.25

Ipswich Town W

3.67

Ipswich Town W creates 194% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

3.58

3.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Chichester & Selsey W

1.00

Ipswich Town W

3.58

allows per match

Chichester & Selsey W

3.75

Ipswich Town W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chichester & Selsey W+0.00on par

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chichester & Selsey W ↓

Ipswich Town W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Chichester & Selsey W or draw

21%

Chichester & Selsey W or Ipswich Town W

89%

Draw or Ipswich Town W

91%

Winning margin

Chichester & Selsey W wins by 2+

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Chichester & Selsey W 1+ goals

71%

Chichester & Selsey W 2+ goals

36%

Chichester & Selsey W 3+ goals

13%

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals

97%

Ipswich Town W 2+ goals

87%

Ipswich Town W 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Chichester & Selsey W (draw refunded)

10%

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chichester & Selsey W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chichester & Selsey W attack 1.00 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + Chichester & Selsey W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Chichester & Selsey W scores more

level

11%

Ipswich Town W scores more

79%

Ipswich Town W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff