Chichester & Selsey W 1–5 AFC Wimbledon W

Chichester & Selsey W

1 – 5

AFC Wimbledon W

11/13/2022

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundBunn Leisure Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chichester & Selsey W13%

×Draw14%

AFC Wimbledon W73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chichester & Selsey WExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.21

Chichester & Selsey W

1.33

AFC Wimbledon W

3.21

AFC Wimbledon W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

3.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chichester & Selsey W

1.00

AFC Wimbledon W

2.67

allows per match

Chichester & Selsey W

3.75

AFC Wimbledon W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chichester & Selsey W+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chichester & Selsey W ↓

AFC Wimbledon W →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Chichester & Selsey W or draw

27%

Chichester & Selsey W or AFC Wimbledon W

86%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon W

87%

Winning margin

Chichester & Selsey W wins by 2+

AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Chichester & Selsey W 1+ goals

74%

Chichester & Selsey W 2+ goals

38%

Chichester & Selsey W 3+ goals

15%

AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals

96%

AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals

82%

AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Chichester & Selsey W (draw refunded)

15%

AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chichester & Selsey W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chichester & Selsey W attack 1.00 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

AFC Wimbledon W attack 2.67 + Chichester & Selsey W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Chichester & Selsey W scores more

13%

level

14%

AFC Wimbledon W scores more

73%

AFC Wimbledon W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff