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Viby vs Aarhus Fremad II — Denmark Series - Group 4 2018

Viby
Viby
FT
0 – 0
Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
8/4/2018Denmark Series - Group 4Denmark Series - Group 4 · Round 1Viby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Viby34%
×Draw22%
Aarhus Fremad II45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viby
1.71
Aarhus Fremad II
1.98

Aarhus Fremad II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Viby
1.70
Aarhus Fremad II
2.36

allows per match

Viby
1.60
Aarhus Fremad II
1.71

finishing

Viby+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viby ↓

Aarhus Fremad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Viby or draw
55%
Viby or Aarhus Fremad II
78%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad II
66%

Winning margin

Viby wins by 2+
17%
Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Viby 1+ goals
82%
Viby 2+ goals
51%
Viby 3+ goals
24%
Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
86%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
59%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Viby (draw refunded)
43%
Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viby at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Aarhus Fremad II away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viby attack 1.70 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.36 + Viby defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viby scores more
34%
level
22%
Aarhus Fremad II scores more
45%

Aarhus Fremad II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Denmark Series - Group 4: Viby 0–0 Aarhus Fremad II

Viby and Aarhus Fremad II drew 0-0 in Denmark Series - Group 4 on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Viby Idrætspark in Viby J.