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Aarhus Fremad II vs Viby — League #127 2026

Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Viby
Viby
11/1/2025League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 13Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aarhus Fremad II49%
×Draw21%
Viby30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad II
2.11
Viby
1.63

Aarhus Fremad II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad II
1.93
Viby
1.93

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad II
1.33
Viby
2.29

finishing

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par
Viby+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad II ↓

Viby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad II or draw
70%
Aarhus Fremad II or Viby
79%
Draw or Viby
51%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
28%
Viby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
88%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
62%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
35%
Viby 1+ goals
80%
Viby 2+ goals
48%
Viby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
62%
Viby (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad II at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Viby away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad II attack 1.93 + Viby defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.11

Viby attack 1.93 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aarhus Fremad II scores more
49%
level
21%
Viby scores more
30%

Aarhus Fremad II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad II vs Viby

Aarhus Fremad II beat Viby 3-2 in League #127 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.