Chicago Red Stars W 1–0 San Diego Wave W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego Wave W

7/2/2023

NWSL Women · Round 9SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W35%

×Draw27%

San Diego Wave W39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.33

Chicago Red Stars W

1.25

San Diego Wave W

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 57 away

1.42

creates per match

1.28

1.37

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

San Diego Wave W

1.28

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

San Diego Wave W

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

61%

Chicago Red Stars W or San Diego Wave W

73%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

65%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

15%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

71%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

36%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

13%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

74%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

38%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

47%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

35%

level

27%

San Diego Wave W scores more

39%

San Diego Wave W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff