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Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
Preview
23:00
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
8/9/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSeatGeek Stadium
38%
Chicago Red Stars W
model favours
38%24%38%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W38%
×Draw24%
Bay FC W38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Red Stars W
1.50
Bay FC W
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W
1.30
Bay FC W
1.17

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W
1.83
Bay FC W
1.69

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw
62%
Chicago Red Stars W or Bay FC W
76%
Draw or Bay FC W
62%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
18%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
78%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
44%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
19%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
78%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
44%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
50%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more
38%
level
24%
Bay FC W scores more
38%

Chicago Red Stars W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWLWL
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chicago Red Stars W face Bay FC W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Chicago Red Stars W hosting Bay FC W. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chicago Red Stars W host Bay FC W at SeatGeek Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.