Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Chicago Red Stars W35%
Bay FC W40%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 23 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chicago Red Stars W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches
Bay FC W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Bay FC W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38
Bay FC W attack 1.15 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Bay FC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Bay FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Kansas City W
Washington Spirit W
Portland Thorns W
Orlando Pride W
Seattle Reign FC
San Diego Wave W
Racing Louisville W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Angel City W
Utah Royals WBay FCChicago Red Stars WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Chicago Red Stars W host Bay FC W on Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2025/2026 season.
NWSL Women: Chicago Red Stars W 1–1 Bay FC W
Chicago Red Stars W and Bay FC W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on August 10, 2025.
Goals: T. Huff (29'), S. Groom (42').
Bay FC W controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 10.
The match was played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview.