Chicago Fire 0–1 Colorado Rapids: Result & Stats

Chicago Fire

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colorado Rapids

D. Serna 1'

8/23/2015

Major League Soccer · Round 25Toyota Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Chicago Fire50%

×Draw23%

Colorado Rapids27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago FireExpected goals in this matchColorado Rapids

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.29

Chicago Fire

1.82

Colorado Rapids

1.29

Chicago Fire creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

1.91

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Chicago Fire

1.91

Colorado Rapids

1.36

allows per match

Chicago Fire

1.23

Colorado Rapids

1.74

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chicago Fire-0.36scores less

Colorado Rapids-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire ↓

Colorado Rapids →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chicago Fire or draw

73%

Chicago Fire or Colorado Rapids

77%

Draw or Colorado Rapids

50%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire wins by 2+

27%

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chicago Fire 1+ goals

84%

Chicago Fire 2+ goals

54%

Chicago Fire 3+ goals

27%

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

72%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

37%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire (draw refunded)

65%

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.23 · 20 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire attack 1.91 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Colorado Rapids attack 1.36 + Chicago Fire defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chicago Fire scores more

50%

level

23%

Colorado Rapids scores more

27%

Chicago Fire at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chicago Fire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Figueroa

Colorado Rapids · D

8.3

Match Events

1'

11'

35'

51'

63'

69'

J. Johnson← M. Watson

77'

C. Eloundou← D. Powers

82'

Drew Moor

85'

M. Magee← H. Shipp

89'

Gabriel Torres

89'

V. Sánchez← G. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoColorado

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots9

9Corners5

12Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots9

4On Target2

9Off Target4

7Blocked3

14Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

531Total Passes263

443Accurate Passes179

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3