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Chicago Fire II vs Wichita — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
FT
3 – 0
Wichita
Wichita
7/10/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 49Bridgeview Sports Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago Fire II75%
×Draw15%
Wichita10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.72
Wichita
0.92

Chicago Fire II creates 196% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Wichita
0.78

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Wichita
2.83

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Wichita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
90%
Chicago Fire II or Wichita
85%
Draw or Wichita
25%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
54%
Wichita wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
93%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
75%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
50%
Wichita 1+ goals
60%
Wichita 2+ goals
23%
Wichita 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
88%
Wichita (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.72

Wichita attack 0.78 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
75%
level
15%
Wichita scores more
10%

Chicago Fire II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago Fire II 3–0 Wichita

Chicago Fire II beat Wichita 3-0 in USL League Two on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Bridgeview Sports Dome in Bridgeview, Illinois.