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Chicago Fire II vs St. Louis SG — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
FT
3 – 1
St. Louis SG
St. Louis SG
6/24/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 35Bridgeview Sports Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chicago Fire II54%
×Draw19%
St. Louis SG26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
2.47
St. Louis SG
1.70

Chicago Fire II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
St. Louis SG
2.33

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
St. Louis SG
2.33

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
St. Louis SG+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

St. Louis SG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
74%
Chicago Fire II or St. Louis SG
81%
Draw or St. Louis SG
46%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
34%
St. Louis SG wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
91%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
70%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
44%
St. Louis SG 1+ goals
82%
St. Louis SG 2+ goals
51%
St. Louis SG 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
67%
St. Louis SG (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

St. Louis SG away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + St. Louis SG defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.47

St. Louis SG attack 2.33 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
54%
level
19%
St. Louis SG scores more
26%

Chicago Fire II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago Fire II 3–1 St. Louis SG

Chicago Fire II beat St. Louis SG 3-1 in USL League Two on June 24, 2021.

The match was played at Bridgeview Sports Dome in Bridgeview, Illinois.