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Chicago Fire II vs Peoria — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire IIadvanced
FT
3 – 1
Peoria
Peoria
7/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsAtwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago Fire II45%
×Draw22%
Peoria33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
1.87
Peoria
1.59

Chicago Fire II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Peoria
2.13

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Peoria
1.13

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Peoria+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Peoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
67%
Chicago Fire II or Peoria
78%
Draw or Peoria
55%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
24%
Peoria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
85%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
56%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
29%
Peoria 1+ goals
80%
Peoria 2+ goals
47%
Peoria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
57%
Peoria (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Peoria away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Peoria defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.87

Peoria attack 2.13 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
45%
level
22%
Peoria scores more
33%

Chicago Fire II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago Fire II 3–1 Peoria

Chicago Fire II beat Peoria 3-1 in USL League Two on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Atwood Stadium in Flint, Michigan.