Chicago Fire II 0–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Chicago Fire II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Indy Eleven

4/18/2024

US Open Cup · 3rd RoundSeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chicago Fire II72%

×Draw20%

Indy Eleven8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Fire IIExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.42

Chicago Fire II

1.83

Indy Eleven

0.42

Chicago Fire II creates 336% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

0.50

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chicago Fire II

2.67

Indy Eleven

0.50

allows per match

Chicago Fire II

0.33

Indy Eleven

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Indy Eleven →

0–011%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw

92%

Chicago Fire II or Indy Eleven

80%

Draw or Indy Eleven

28%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

44%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

84%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

54%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

28%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

34%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

90%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.67 + Indy Eleven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Indy Eleven attack 0.50 + Chicago Fire II defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more

72%

level

20%

Indy Eleven scores more

Chicago Fire II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff