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Chicago Fire II vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
PST
00:00
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/3/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19Hoyne Field (Chicago, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago Fire II41%
×Draw23%
Des Moines Menace37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
1.77
Des Moines Menace
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
63%
Chicago Fire II or Des Moines Menace
77%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
59%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
21%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
83%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
53%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
26%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
81%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
50%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
53%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
41%
level
23%
Des Moines Menace scores more
37%

Chicago Fire II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chicago Fire II face Des Moines Menace (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Chicago Fire II hosting Des Moines Menace. Match starts June 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chicago Fire II host Des Moines Menace at Hoyne Field (Chicago, Illinois).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.