Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chicago Fire II vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
7/6/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12Hoyne Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chicago Fire II58%
×Draw22%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Fire II
1.90
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.03

Chicago Fire II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chicago Fire II
2.61
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Chicago Fire II
1.06
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw
80%
Chicago Fire II or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
78%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
42%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
34%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
85%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
56%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
29%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
64%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
28%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
74%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more
58%
level
22%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
20%

Chicago Fire II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago Fire II 1–1 Cincinnati Dutch Lions

Chicago Fire II and Cincinnati Dutch Lions drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Hoyne Field.