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Chicago Dutch Lions vs St. Charles — USL League Two 2018

Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
St. Charles
St. Charles
7/16/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 17Spartan Athletic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chicago Dutch Lions22%
×Draw17%
St. Charles61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Dutch Lions
1.72
St. Charles
2.88

St. Charles creates 67% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chicago Dutch Lions
1.10
St. Charles
2.42

allows per match

Chicago Dutch Lions
3.33
St. Charles
2.33

finishing

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par
St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Dutch Lions ↓

St. Charles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Chicago Dutch Lions or draw
39%
Chicago Dutch Lions or St. Charles
83%
Draw or St. Charles
78%

Winning margin

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
10%
St. Charles wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
82%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
51%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
25%
St. Charles 1+ goals
94%
St. Charles 2+ goals
78%
St. Charles 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
26%
St. Charles (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.10 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

St. Charles attack 2.42 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
22%
level
17%
St. Charles scores more
61%

St. Charles at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "St. Charles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Dutch Lions vs St. Charles

Chicago Dutch Lions beat St. Charles 3-1 in USL League Two on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Spartan Athletic Park in Aurora, Illinois.