Chicago Dutch Lions 3–5 Chicago City

Chicago Dutch Lions

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Chicago City

6/30/2022

USL League Two · Round 54Joe Bean Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chicago Dutch Lions20%

×Draw17%

Chicago City63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchChicago City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.77

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.52

Chicago City

2.77

Chicago City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 19 away

1.10

creates per match

2.21

3.33

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.10

Chicago City

2.21

allows per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

3.33

Chicago City

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Chicago City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Dutch Lions ↓

Chicago City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Chicago Dutch Lions or draw

37%

Chicago Dutch Lions or Chicago City

83%

Draw or Chicago City

80%

Winning margin

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+

8%

Chicago City wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals

78%

Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals

45%

Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals

20%

Chicago City 1+ goals

94%

Chicago City 2+ goals

76%

Chicago City 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

24%

Chicago City (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

Chicago City away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.10 + Chicago City defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chicago City attack 2.21 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more

20%

level

17%

Chicago City scores more

63%

Chicago City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff