Chicago City 1–0 Springfield ASC: Result & Stats

Chicago City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Springfield ASC

6/2/2022

USL League Two · Round 21Cacciatore Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chicago City62%

×Draw18%

Springfield ASC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago CityExpected goals in this matchSpringfield ASC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.38

Chicago City

2.54

Springfield ASC

1.38

Chicago City creates 84% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

2.24

creates per match

1.00

1.76

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Chicago City

2.24

Springfield ASC

1.00

allows per match

Chicago City

1.76

Springfield ASC

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par

Springfield ASC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Springfield ASC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw

80%

Chicago City or Springfield ASC

82%

Draw or Springfield ASC

38%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+

41%

Springfield ASC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals

92%

Chicago City 2+ goals

72%

Chicago City 3+ goals

46%

Springfield ASC 1+ goals

75%

Springfield ASC 2+ goals

40%

Springfield ASC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)

76%

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Springfield ASC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Springfield ASC defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.54

Springfield ASC attack 1.00 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chicago City scores more

62%

level

18%

Springfield ASC scores more

20%

Chicago City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff