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Chicago City vs River Light — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
River Light
River Light
6/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10Hoyne Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chicago City45%
×Draw21%
River Light34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
2.15
River Light
1.85

Chicago City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
River Light
1.94

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
River Light
2.06

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
River Light+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

River Light →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
66%
Chicago City or River Light
79%
Draw or River Light
55%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
26%
River Light wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
88%
Chicago City 2+ goals
63%
Chicago City 3+ goals
36%
River Light 1+ goals
84%
River Light 2+ goals
55%
River Light 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
57%
River Light (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

River Light away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + River Light defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.15

River Light attack 1.94 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chicago City scores more
45%
level
21%
River Light scores more
34%

Chicago City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago City vs River Light

River Light beat Chicago City 3-1 in USL League Two on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Hoyne Field in Chicago, Illinois.