Chicago City 0–2 Flint City Bucks: Result & Stats

Chicago City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Flint City Bucks

7/23/2023

USL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsBishop John D’Arcy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City34%

×Draw22%

Flint City Bucks44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago CityExpected goals in this matchFlint City Bucks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.93

Chicago City

1.66

Flint City Bucks

1.93

Flint City Bucks creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

2.24

creates per match

2.10

1.76

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Chicago City

2.24

Flint City Bucks

2.10

allows per match

Chicago City

1.76

Flint City Bucks

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Flint City Bucks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw

56%

Chicago City or Flint City Bucks

78%

Draw or Flint City Bucks

66%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+

17%

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals

81%

Chicago City 2+ goals

49%

Chicago City 3+ goals

23%

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals

85%

Flint City Bucks 2+ goals

57%

Flint City Bucks 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)

43%

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Flint City Bucks attack 2.10 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chicago City scores more

34%

level

22%

Flint City Bucks scores more

44%

Flint City Bucks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 0–2 Flint City Bucks

Flint City Bucks beat Chicago City 2-0 in USL League Two on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Chicago City vs Flint City Bucks — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Chicago City 0–2 Flint City Bucks