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Chicago City vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/13/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 8Hoyne Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City31%
×Draw22%
Des Moines Menace48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
1.59
Des Moines Menace
2.02

Des Moines Menace creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 41 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
52%
Chicago City or Des Moines Menace
78%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
69%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
15%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
80%
Chicago City 2+ goals
47%
Chicago City 3+ goals
21%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
87%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
60%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
39%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chicago City scores more
31%
level
22%
Des Moines Menace scores more
48%

Des Moines Menace at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 0–2 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat Chicago City 2-0 in USL League Two on June 13, 2024.

The match was played at Hoyne Field in Chicago, Illinois.