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Chicago City vs Cleveland Force — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago Cityadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cleveland Force
Cleveland Force
7/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsBishop John D’Arcy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City50%
×Draw20%
Cleveland Force29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
2.23
Cleveland Force
1.67

Chicago City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Cleveland Force
1.58

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Cleveland Force
2.21

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Cleveland Force+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Cleveland Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
71%
Chicago City or Cleveland Force
80%
Draw or Cleveland Force
50%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
30%
Cleveland Force wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
89%
Chicago City 2+ goals
65%
Chicago City 3+ goals
38%
Cleveland Force 1+ goals
81%
Cleveland Force 2+ goals
50%
Cleveland Force 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
63%
Cleveland Force (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Cleveland Force away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Cleveland Force defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Cleveland Force attack 1.58 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chicago City scores more
50%
level
20%
Cleveland Force scores more
29%

Chicago City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago City vs Cleveland Force

Chicago City beat Cleveland Force 5-1 in USL League Two on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium in Fort Wayne, Indiana.