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Chicago City vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
2 – 4
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
7/7/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 62ITW Speer Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City30%
×Draw20%
Chicago Fire II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
1.74
Chicago Fire II
2.26

Chicago Fire II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
50%
Chicago City or Chicago Fire II
80%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
70%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
15%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
82%
Chicago City 2+ goals
52%
Chicago City 3+ goals
25%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
89%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
66%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
38%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.74

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chicago City scores more
30%
level
20%
Chicago Fire II scores more
50%

Chicago Fire II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 2–4 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Chicago City 4-2 in USL League Two on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at ITW Speer Academy in Chicago, Illinois.