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Chicago City vs Chicago Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Chicago City
Chicago City
FT
3 – 2
Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
6/9/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 29ITW Speer Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago City65%
×Draw17%
Chicago Dutch Lions18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago City
2.86
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.48

Chicago City creates 93% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chicago City
2.24
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.20

allows per match

Chicago City
1.76
Chicago Dutch Lions
3.47

finishing

Chicago City+0.00on par
Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago City ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Chicago City or draw
82%
Chicago City or Chicago Dutch Lions
83%
Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions
35%

Winning margin

Chicago City wins by 2+
45%
Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chicago City 1+ goals
94%
Chicago City 2+ goals
77%
Chicago City 3+ goals
53%
Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
77%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
43%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chicago City (draw refunded)
78%
Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago City at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago City attack 2.24 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.86

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Chicago City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chicago City scores more
65%
level
17%
Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
18%

Chicago City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chicago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Chicago City 3–2 Chicago Dutch Lions

Chicago City beat Chicago Dutch Lions 3-2 in USL League Two on June 9, 2022.

The match was played at ITW Speer Academy in Chicago, Illinois.