Stromsgodset 4–2 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Aalesund

F. Kastrati 90+7'

L. Vilsvik 74'

M. Kirkeskov 26' (OG)

M. Keita 17'

P. Larsen 34'

M. Abdellaoue 5'

7/4/2016

Eliteserien · Round 14Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Stromsgodset52%

×Draw21%

Aalesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.52

Stromsgodset

2.14

Aalesund

1.52

Stromsgodset creates 41% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.26

1.77

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Aalesund

1.26

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Aalesund

2.46

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

73%

Stromsgodset or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

48%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

31%

Aalesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

88%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

63%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

36%

Aalesund 1+ goals

78%

Aalesund 2+ goals

45%

Aalesund 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

65%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.14

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

52%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

27%

Stromsgodset at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

P. Moen

Stromsgodset

8.2

Match Events

5'

M. Abdellaoue↳ P. Larsen

17'

M. Keita↳ P. Moen

26'

M. KirkeskovOwn goal

34'

P. Larsen↳ A. Þrándarson

74'

L. Vilsvik↳ P. Moen

77'

S. Fet← M. Abdellaoue

80'

Bjorn Helge Riise

84'

T. Sørum← M. Keita

85'

D. Grétarsson← A. Arnarson

86'

F. Carlsen← V. Hoff

90'

Flamur Kastrati

90'

F. Kastrati← Ø. Storflor

90+7'

F. Kastrati↳ Marcus Pedersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetAalesund

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots17

10Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots17

7On Target3

6Off Target8

5Blocked6

14Inside Box12

5Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

511Total Passes311

410Accurate Passes223

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 4–2 Aalesund

Stromsgodset beat Aalesund 4-2 in Eliteserien on July 4, 2016.

Goals: M. Abdellaoue (5'), M. Keita (17'), M. Kirkeskov (26' o.g.), P. Larsen (34'), L. Vilsvik (74'), F. Kastrati (90+7').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 17.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 4–2 Aalesund