Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grindavik vs IA Akranes — Úrvalsdeild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
IA Akranes
IA Akranes
Juanma Ortiz 84'
A. Bjarnason 80' (pen), 64' (pen)
G. Gunnlaugsson 68'
T. Thórdarson 51'
8/14/2017ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 15Grindavíkurvöllur (Grindavík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grindavik47%
×Draw24%
IA Akranes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.67
IA Akranes
1.25

Grindavik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.11
IA Akranes
1.35

allows per match

Grindavik
1.16
IA Akranes
2.22

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

IA Akranes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
71%
Grindavik or IA Akranes
76%
Draw or IA Akranes
53%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
25%
IA Akranes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
81%
Grindavik 2+ goals
50%
Grindavik 3+ goals
23%
IA Akranes 1+ goals
71%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
36%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
62%
IA Akranes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.11 + IA Akranes defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

IA Akranes attack 1.35 + Grindavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grindavik scores more
47%
level
24%
IA Akranes scores more
29%

Grindavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
H. Pétursson← H. Flosason
51'
T. Thórdarson
64'
A. BjarnasonPenalty
68'
G. Gunnlaugsson
69'
Juanma Ortiz← A. Róbertsson
73'
A. Hafsteinsson← T. Thórdarson
80'
A. BjarnasonPenalty
81'
S. Smidt← W. Daniels
84'
Juanma Ortiz
89'
Eduardo Cruz← M. Žeravica
89'
P. Stefański← O. Valdimarsson

Úrvalsdeild: Grindavik 3–2 IA Akranes

Grindavik beat IA Akranes 3-2 in Úrvalsdeild on August 14, 2017.

Goals: T. Thórdarson (51'), A. Bjarnason (64' pen, 80' pen), G. Gunnlaugsson (68'), Juanma Ortiz (84').

The match was played at Grindavíkurvöllur (Grindavík).