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Chiba vs Shao Jiang — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
1/25/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chiba21%
×Draw17%
Shao Jiang62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
1.78
Shao Jiang
3.01

Shao Jiang creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Shao Jiang
4.31

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Shao Jiang
0.85

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Shao Jiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
38%
Chiba or Shao Jiang
83%
Draw or Shao Jiang
79%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
10%
Shao Jiang wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
83%
Chiba 2+ goals
53%
Chiba 3+ goals
26%
Shao Jiang 1+ goals
95%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
80%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
26%
Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.78

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 3.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chiba scores more
21%
level
17%
Shao Jiang scores more
62%

Shao Jiang at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiba vs Shao Jiang

Shao Jiang beat Chiba 2-0 in Primeira Divisão on January 25, 2026.