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Chiba vs Lun Lok — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lun Lok
Lun Lok
4/26/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 7Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiba70%
×Draw15%
Lun Lok16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
3.32
Lun Lok
1.58

Chiba creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Lun Lok
1.46

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Lun Lok
3.93

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Lun Lok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
84%
Chiba or Lun Lok
85%
Draw or Lun Lok
30%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
51%
Lun Lok wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
96%
Chiba 2+ goals
84%
Chiba 3+ goals
62%
Lun Lok 1+ goals
79%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
47%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
82%
Lun Lok (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.32

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Chiba scores more
70%
level
15%
Lun Lok scores more
16%

Chiba at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chiba 4 – 2 Lun Lok

Chiba beat Lun Lok 4-2 in Primeira Divisão on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.