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Chiba vs Gorilla of the Universe — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
Preview
12:00
Gorilla of the Universe
Gorilla of the Universe
7/19/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 17
52%
Chiba
model favours
52%18%31%
3–2
likely score
91%
over 2.5 goals
87%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chiba52%
×Draw18%
Gorilla of the Universe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
3.10
Gorilla of the Universe
2.42

Chiba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Gorilla of the Universe
3.13

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Gorilla of the Universe
3.50

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Gorilla of the Universe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
69%
Chiba or Gorilla of the Universe
82%
Draw or Gorilla of the Universe
48%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
34%
Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
95%
Chiba 2+ goals
81%
Chiba 3+ goals
58%
Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals
91%
Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals
69%
Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
63%
Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Gorilla of the Universe away — creates 3.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

Gorilla of the Universe attack 3.13 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chiba scores more
52%
level
18%
Gorilla of the Universe scores more
31%

Chiba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Chiba
LDLWW
Universe
WLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chiba face Gorilla of the Universe (Primeira Divisão)

Primeira Divisão returns with Chiba hosting Gorilla of the Universe. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.