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Chiatura vs Sulori — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chiatura
Chiatura
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sulori
Sulori
9/3/2016Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Stadioni Temur Maghradze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chiatura75%
×Draw16%
Sulori9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiatura
2.40
Sulori
0.69

Chiatura creates 248% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chiatura
1.80
Sulori
0.57

allows per match

Chiatura
0.80
Sulori
3.00

finishing

Chiatura+0.00on par
Sulori+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiatura ↓

Sulori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chiatura or draw
91%
Chiatura or Sulori
84%
Draw or Sulori
25%

Winning margin

Chiatura wins by 2+
52%
Sulori wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chiatura 1+ goals
91%
Chiatura 2+ goals
69%
Chiatura 3+ goals
42%
Sulori 1+ goals
50%
Sulori 2+ goals
15%
Sulori 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chiatura (draw refunded)
89%
Sulori (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiatura at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Sulori away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiatura attack 1.80 + Sulori defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Sulori attack 0.57 + Chiatura defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chiatura scores more
75%
level
16%
Sulori scores more
9%

Chiatura at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chiatura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Chiatura 2–1 Sulori

Chiatura beat Sulori 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 3, 2016.

The match was played at Stadioni Temur Maghradze in Chiatura.