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Chiangrai vs Kanthararom United — FA Cup 2018

Chiangrai
Chiangrai
FT
3 – 0
Kanthararom United
Kanthararom United
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangrai76%
×Draw15%
Kanthararom United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai
2.50
Kanthararom United
0.71

Chiangrai creates 252% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chiangrai
3.00
Kanthararom United
0.75

allows per match

Chiangrai
0.67
Kanthararom United
2.00

finishing

Chiangrai+0.00on par
Kanthararom United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai ↓

Kanthararom United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chiangrai or draw
91%
Chiangrai or Kanthararom United
85%
Draw or Kanthararom United
24%

Winning margin

Chiangrai wins by 2+
54%
Kanthararom United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chiangrai 1+ goals
92%
Chiangrai 2+ goals
71%
Chiangrai 3+ goals
45%
Kanthararom United 1+ goals
51%
Kanthararom United 2+ goals
16%
Kanthararom United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai (draw refunded)
90%
Kanthararom United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Kanthararom United away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai attack 3.00 + Kanthararom United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kanthararom United attack 0.75 + Chiangrai defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Chiangrai scores more
76%
level
15%
Kanthararom United scores more
9%

Chiangrai at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Chiangrai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Chiangrai 3–0 Kanthararom United

Chiangrai beat Kanthararom United 3-0 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.