Chiangrai United 2–1 Uttaradit: Result & Stats

Chiangrai United

2 – 1

Uttaradit

5/1/2019

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chiangrai United81%

×Draw11%

Uttaradit8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangrai UnitedExpected goals in this matchUttaradit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.48

1.05

Chiangrai United

3.48

Uttaradit

1.05

Chiangrai United creates 231% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

4.67

creates per match

1.43

0.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Chiangrai United

4.67

Uttaradit

1.43

allows per match

Chiangrai United

0.67

Uttaradit

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Uttaradit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Uttaradit →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw

92%

Chiangrai United or Uttaradit

89%

Draw or Uttaradit

19%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

64%

Uttaradit wins by 2+

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

97%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

85%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

65%

Uttaradit 1+ goals

65%

Uttaradit 2+ goals

28%

Uttaradit 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

91%

Uttaradit (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Uttaradit away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 4.67 + Uttaradit defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 3.48

Uttaradit attack 1.43 + Chiangrai United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chiangrai United scores more

81%

level

11%

Uttaradit scores more

Chiangrai United at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff