Chiangrai United 1–0 Tampines Rovers

Chiangrai United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tampines Rovers

6/28/2021

AFC Champions League · Group H - 2Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chiangrai United81%

×Draw11%

Tampines Rovers7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangrai UnitedExpected goals in this matchTampines Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.29

0.92

Chiangrai United

3.29

Tampines Rovers

0.92

Chiangrai United creates 258% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.50

1.33

allows per match

5.25

creates per match

Chiangrai United

1.33

Tampines Rovers

0.50

allows per match

Chiangrai United

1.33

Tampines Rovers

5.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Tampines Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw

93%

Chiangrai United or Tampines Rovers

89%

Draw or Tampines Rovers

19%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

63%

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

96%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

83%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

62%

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

60%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

23%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

92%

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.33 + Tampines Rovers defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.29

Tampines Rovers attack 0.50 + Chiangrai United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chiangrai United scores more

81%

level

11%

Tampines Rovers scores more

7%

Chiangrai United at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff