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Chiangrai United vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
CANC
14:00
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
4/19/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chiangrai United44%
×Draw26%
SHANGHAI SIPG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai United
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.19

Chiangrai United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw
70%
Chiangrai United or SHANGHAI SIPG
74%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
56%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+
22%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals
78%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
44%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
19%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
33%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
60%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.33 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Chiangrai United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chiangrai United scores more
44%
level
26%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
30%

Chiangrai United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chiangrai United host SHANGHAI SIPG

April 19, 2022: Chiangrai United take on SHANGHAI SIPG in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chiangrai United host SHANGHAI SIPG at Chang Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.