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Chiangrai United vs FC Seoul — AFC Champions League 2018

Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
11/27/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chiangrai United48%
×Draw25%
FC Seoul28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai United
1.61
FC Seoul
1.17

Chiangrai United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
FC Seoul
1.00

allows per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
FC Seoul
1.89

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw
72%
Chiangrai United or FC Seoul
75%
Draw or FC Seoul
52%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+
25%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals
80%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
48%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
22%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
69%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
33%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
63%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.33 + FC Seoul defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Seoul attack 1.00 + Chiangrai United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chiangrai United scores more
48%
level
25%
FC Seoul scores more
28%

Chiangrai United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangrai United vs FC Seoul

Chiangrai United beat FC Seoul 2-1 in AFC Champions League on November 27, 2020.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.