Chiangrai United 0–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Chiangrai United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Beijing Guoan

2/18/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Singha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chiangrai United49%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangrai UnitedExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Chiangrai United

1.67

Beijing Guoan

1.17

Chiangrai United creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chiangrai United

1.33

Beijing Guoan

1.00

allows per match

Chiangrai United

1.33

Beijing Guoan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw

73%

Chiangrai United or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

51%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

26%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

81%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

50%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

23%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

69%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

33%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

65%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.33 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Chiangrai United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chiangrai United scores more

49%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

27%

Chiangrai United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff