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Chiangrai United vs Air Force Central FC — FA Cup 2018

Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
FT
2 – 0
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
7/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangrai United66%
×Draw16%
Air Force Central FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai United
3.17
Air Force Central FC
1.67

Chiangrai United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chiangrai United
4.67
Air Force Central FC
2.67

allows per match

Chiangrai United
0.67
Air Force Central FC
1.67

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw
82%
Chiangrai United or Air Force Central FC
84%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
34%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+
47%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals
96%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
82%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
60%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
81%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
50%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
78%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 4.67 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Air Force Central FC attack 2.67 + Chiangrai United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chiangrai United scores more
66%
level
16%
Air Force Central FC scores more
18%

Chiangrai United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangrai United vs Air Force Central FC

Chiangrai United beat Air Force Central FC 2-0 in FA Cup on July 4, 2018.