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Chiangrai Lanna vs Uttaradit — League Cup 2021

Chiangrai Lanna
Chiangrai Lanna
FT
1 – 5
Uttaradit
Uttaradit
9/21/2022League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundChiang Rai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangrai Lanna9%
×Draw11%
Uttaradit80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai Lanna
1.33
Uttaradit
3.83

Uttaradit creates 188% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chiangrai Lanna
1.00
Uttaradit
2.33

allows per match

Chiangrai Lanna
5.33
Uttaradit
1.67

finishing

Chiangrai Lanna+0.00on par
Uttaradit+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai Lanna ↓

Uttaradit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Chiangrai Lanna or draw
20%
Chiangrai Lanna or Uttaradit
89%
Draw or Uttaradit
91%

Winning margin

Chiangrai Lanna wins by 2+
3%
Uttaradit wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Chiangrai Lanna 1+ goals
74%
Chiangrai Lanna 2+ goals
38%
Chiangrai Lanna 3+ goals
15%
Uttaradit 1+ goals
98%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
88%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai Lanna (draw refunded)
10%
Uttaradit (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai Lanna at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Uttaradit away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai Lanna attack 1.00 + Uttaradit defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Uttaradit attack 2.33 + Chiangrai Lanna defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Chiangrai Lanna scores more
9%
level
11%
Uttaradit scores more
80%

Uttaradit at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Uttaradit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Chiangrai Lanna 1–5 Uttaradit

Uttaradit beat Chiangrai Lanna 5-1 in League Cup on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Chiang Rai Stadium in Chiang Rai.