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Chiangrai Lanna vs Uthai Thani — League Cup 2021

Chiangrai Lanna
Chiangrai Lanna
FT
0 – 10
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
10/20/2021League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundChiang Rai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangrai Lanna5%
×Draw8%
Uthai Thani88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai Lanna
0.94
Uthai Thani
4.11

Uthai Thani creates 337% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chiangrai Lanna
1.00
Uthai Thani
2.88

allows per match

Chiangrai Lanna
5.33
Uthai Thani
0.88

finishing

Chiangrai Lanna+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai Lanna ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Chiangrai Lanna or draw
12%
Chiangrai Lanna or Uthai Thani
92%
Draw or Uthai Thani
95%

Winning margin

Chiangrai Lanna wins by 2+
1%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Chiangrai Lanna 1+ goals
61%
Chiangrai Lanna 2+ goals
24%
Chiangrai Lanna 3+ goals
7%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
98%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
90%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai Lanna (draw refunded)
5%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai Lanna at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai Lanna attack 1.00 + Uthai Thani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Uthai Thani attack 2.88 + Chiangrai Lanna defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Chiangrai Lanna scores more
5%
level
8%
Uthai Thani scores more
88%

Uthai Thani at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Chiangrai Lanna 0–10 Uthai Thani

Uthai Thani beat Chiangrai Lanna 10-0 in League Cup on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Chiang Rai Stadium in Chiang Rai.