Chiangmai United 2–1 Samut Sakhon FC

Chiangmai United

FT

2 – 1

Samut Sakhon FC

10/25/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 11RMUTL Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Chiangmai United64%

×Draw20%

Samut Sakhon FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai UnitedExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.01

Chiangmai United

2.17

Samut Sakhon FC

1.01

Chiangmai United creates 115% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 48 away

1.67

creates per match

0.92

1.09

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Chiangmai United

1.67

Samut Sakhon FC

0.92

allows per match

Chiangmai United

1.09

Samut Sakhon FC

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw

83%

Chiangmai United or Samut Sakhon FC

80%

Draw or Samut Sakhon FC

36%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

40%

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

89%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

64%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

36%

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

64%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

27%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

79%

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chiangmai United scores more

64%

level

20%

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

17%

Chiangmai United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff