Chiangmai United 2–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Chiangmai United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

12/9/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 15700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiangmai United38%

×Draw25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai UnitedExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.37

Chiangmai United

1.42

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.65

1.09

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Chiangmai United

1.67

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.65

allows per match

Chiangmai United

1.09

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw

64%

Chiangmai United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

75%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

62%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

18%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

76%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

41%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

17%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

75%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

40%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

52%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chiangmai United scores more

38%

level

25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

36%

Chiangmai United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff