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Chiangmai United vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bangkok
Bangkok
8/17/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chiangmai United50%
×Draw23%
Bangkok27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai United
1.80
Bangkok
1.25

Chiangmai United creates 44% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chiangmai United
1.67
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Chiangmai United
1.09
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Chiangmai United+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai United ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chiangmai United or draw
73%
Chiangmai United or Bangkok
77%
Draw or Bangkok
50%

Winning margin

Chiangmai United wins by 2+
28%
Bangkok wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chiangmai United 1+ goals
83%
Chiangmai United 2+ goals
54%
Chiangmai United 3+ goals
27%
Bangkok 1+ goals
71%
Bangkok 2+ goals
36%
Bangkok 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)
65%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 104 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai United attack 1.67 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Chiangmai United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chiangmai United scores more
50%
level
23%
Bangkok scores more
27%

Chiangmai United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chiangmai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai United vs Bangkok

Bangkok beat Chiangmai United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.