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Chiangmai FC vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
2 – 1
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
4/1/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7700th Anniversary Stadium (Chiang Mai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chiangmai FC66%
×Draw19%
Samut Sakhon FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
2.27
Samut Sakhon FC
1.00

Chiangmai FC creates 127% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 39 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.79
Samut Sakhon FC
0.85

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.15
Samut Sakhon FC
2.74

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
85%
Chiangmai FC or Samut Sakhon FC
81%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
34%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
43%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
90%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
66%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
39%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
63%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
26%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
81%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.79 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.27

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.85 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
66%
level
19%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
15%

Chiangmai FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chiangmai FC 2–1 Samut Sakhon FC

Chiangmai FC beat Samut Sakhon FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium (Chiang Mai).