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Chiangmai FC vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
9/10/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC45%
×Draw24%
Rayong FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.61
Rayong FC
1.29

Chiangmai FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
69%
Chiangmai FC or Rayong FC
76%
Draw or Rayong FC
55%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
23%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
80%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
48%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
22%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
72%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
37%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
59%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
45%
level
24%
Rayong FC scores more
31%

Chiangmai FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chiangmai FC 0–2 Rayong FC

Rayong FC beat Chiangmai FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.