Chiangmai FC 3–2 Ranong United: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ranong United

4/30/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 34Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Chiangmai FC56%

×Draw23%

Ranong United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchRanong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.00

Chiangmai FC

1.79

Ranong United

1.00

Chiangmai FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 49 away

1.79

creates per match

0.86

1.15

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.79

Ranong United

0.86

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.15

Ranong United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Ranong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

79%

Chiangmai FC or Ranong United

77%

Draw or Ranong United

44%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

32%

Ranong United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

83%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

53%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

26%

Ranong United 1+ goals

63%

Ranong United 2+ goals

26%

Ranong United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

73%

Ranong United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.79 + Ranong United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ranong United attack 0.86 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

56%

level

23%

Ranong United scores more

21%

Chiangmai FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff