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Chiangmai FC vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
1 – 1
Navy FC
Navy FC
9/16/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 6Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chiangmai FC57%
×Draw22%
Navy FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.92
Navy FC
1.07

Chiangmai FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
79%
Chiangmai FC or Navy FC
78%
Draw or Navy FC
43%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
33%
Navy FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
85%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
57%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
30%
Navy FC 1+ goals
66%
Navy FC 2+ goals
29%
Navy FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
73%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
57%
level
22%
Navy FC scores more
21%

Chiangmai FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Navy FC

Chiangmai FC and Navy FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.