Chiangmai FC 3–2 Esan Pattaya: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Esan Pattaya

S. Koedsri 82'

A. Sawasdee 45'

Yoo Byung-Soo 13'

S. Niamkong 90+3'

Judivan 35'

9/16/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 5Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chiangmai FC47%

×Draw25%

Esan Pattaya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchEsan Pattaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Chiangmai FC

1.54

Esan Pattaya

1.13

Chiangmai FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

1.80

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.80

Esan Pattaya

1.10

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.16

Esan Pattaya

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Esan Pattaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

72%

Chiangmai FC or Esan Pattaya

75%

Draw or Esan Pattaya

53%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

24%

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

79%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

45%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

20%

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

68%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

31%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

63%

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.80 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Esan Pattaya scores more

28%

Chiangmai FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Yoo Byung-Soo

35'

Judivan

45'

A. Sawasdee

46'

C. Xaysensourinthone← A. Sawasdee

59'

A. Thaloengram← P. Phasook

59'

W. Settanant← P. Chuenkromrak

59'

A. Kittijumratsak← S. Lattirom

80'

K. Bouloy← P. Chanokkawinkul

82'

S. Koedsri

86'

T. Tonkham← Chang-Kyoon Im

88'

A. Maundee← Yoo Byung-Soo

90+2'

S. Srisai← C. Chappuis

90+2'

N. Phonyiam← S. Saengra

90+3'

S. Niamkong

Chiangmai

Esan

1

Phadungch

4

Uppala

27

▼

Phasook

6

Ijoy

88

Singkhokk

2

▼

Chanokkaw

14

Pongthong

16

▼

Lattirom

17

⚽

Niamkong

95

⚽

Judivan

37

▼

1

23

35

6

▼

Saengra

24

⚽

Koedsri

92

▼

Chappuis

21

Cuerva

10

⚽

▼

Byung-Soo

18

Júnior

16

⚽

▼

Sawasdee

94

▼

Im

Manager: J. Fukuda

46'▲C. Xaysensourinthone←▼A. Sawasdee

86'▲T. Tonkham←▼Chang-Kyoon Im

88'▲A. Maundee←▼Yoo Byung-Soo

90+2'▲S. Srisai←▼C. Chappuis

90+2'▲N. Phonyiam←▼S. Saengra

Chiangmai FC substitutes

9Xaysensourinthone25Tonkham88Maundee8Srisai17Phonyiam11Khotrsupho22Samakorn36Kingkaew49Hanchiaw

Manager: V. Jankam

59'▲A. Thaloengram←▼P. Phasook

59'▲W. Settanant←▼P. Chuenkromrak

59'▲A. Kittijumratsak←▼S. Lattirom

80'▲K. Bouloy←▼P. Chanokkawinkul

Esan Pattaya substitutes

19Thaloengram67Settanant13Kittijumratsak32Bouloy28Tiangwong36Boonkerd74Jensen86Wongdee87Luadsong

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Esan Pattaya

Chiangmai FC beat Esan Pattaya 3-2 in Thai League 2 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: Yoo Byung-Soo (13'), Judivan (35'), A. Sawasdee (45'), S. Koedsri (82'), S. Niamkong (90+3').

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.

Chiangmai FC vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Esan Pattaya