Chiangmai FC 0–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ayutthaya FC

3/5/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 26Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC46%

×Draw25%

Ayutthaya FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Chiangmai FC

1.58

Ayutthaya FC

1.19

Chiangmai FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 101 away

1.78

creates per match

1.25

1.12

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.78

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.12

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

71%

Chiangmai FC or Ayutthaya FC

75%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

54%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

24%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

79%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

47%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

21%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

70%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

33%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

62%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

29%

Chiangmai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff