Chiangmai FC 3–2 Ang Thong FC: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

3 – 2

Ang Thong FC

5/12/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 13700th Anniversary Stadium (Chiang Mai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chiangmai FC56%

×Draw23%

Ang Thong FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchAng Thong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.03

Chiangmai FC

1.85

Ang Thong FC

1.03

Chiangmai FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.78

Ang Thong FC

0.93

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.12

Ang Thong FC

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Ang Thong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

79%

Chiangmai FC or Ang Thong FC

77%

Draw or Ang Thong FC

44%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

32%

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

84%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

55%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

28%

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals

64%

Ang Thong FC 2+ goals

28%

Ang Thong FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

73%

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

56%

level

23%

Ang Thong FC scores more

21%

Chiangmai FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff