Chiangmai FC 2–3 Air Force Central FC

Chiangmai FC

2 – 3

Air Force Central FC

6/27/2018

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chiangmai FC22%

×Draw17%

Air Force Central FC61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchAir Force Central FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.83

Chiangmai FC

1.67

Air Force Central FC

2.83

Air Force Central FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

2.67

3.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.67

Air Force Central FC

2.67

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

3.00

Air Force Central FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Air Force Central FC →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

39%

Chiangmai FC or Air Force Central FC

83%

Draw or Air Force Central FC

78%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

10%

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

81%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

50%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

23%

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

94%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

77%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

26%

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.67 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Air Force Central FC attack 2.67 + Chiangmai FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

22%

level

17%

Air Force Central FC scores more

61%

Air Force Central FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff